Climate data and projections used
Two General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs and one baseline climate output at a resolution of 10 minutes (approx 20x20km) are offered, based on data from Worldclim (Hijmans et al 2005) and the CCAFS portal (CCAFS 2012). Three time periods are offered for climate matching: a baseline period 1971-2000, the projected 30-year climate period 2031-2060 (2050) and 2061-2090 (2080). Currently, only the IPCC SRES scenario(IPCC 2000) A1B can be selected. A1B is a medium high GHG emissions scenario representing rapid economic growth with balanced energy sources.
Using the tool
The growing season box, if checked provides a match for the months March to October, if unchecked then the match is for the whole year.
Tip - select the Year first, followed by the Model, and then the SRES.To run the climate matching tool click Calculate.
Results from a calculation are highlighted as 'climate matched' areas. The map can be further assessed using three climatic moisture deficit (MD) layers. The MD layers represent regional variation where the sensitivity of tree species to drought varies. Moisture deficit thresholds represent the regional extent of suitability for 'very sensitive tree species' (MD200), 'moderately tolerant tree species' (MD250), and 'tolerant tree species' (MD300). The zones have been calculated separately for baseline, 2050, and 2080 projections by accumulating the monthly excess of crop evaporation (using the Hargreaves method - ET0) over monthly precipitation (P). Moisture Deficit thresholds based on an average of the maximum MD value over each year of a 30-year climatic period are used to assess whether all, some, or none of the eight GCMs agree. The MD classes are: 'no-shading' - all models below the described MD threshold, 'light grey' - uncertainty among the eight models, 'dark grey' - all models over the described MD threshold.
Broadmeadow M, Ray D, Samuel C (2005) Climate change and the future for broadleaved tree species in Britain. Forestry 78 (2):145-167
Downscaled GCM Data Portal (2012) CCAFS Coordinating Unit - University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Science, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Rolighedsvej 21, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. http://www.ccafs-climate.org/. Accessed 16 Jul 2012
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25:1965-1978
IPCC (2000) IPCC Special Report: Emission Scenarios: summary for policymakers WMO-UN Environment Programme, Nairobi
Liedekerke, M.V., Jones, A. and Panagos, P. 2006 ESDBv2 Raster Library - a set of rasters derived from the European Soil Database distribution v2.0 European Commission and the European Soil Bureau Network, CD-ROM, EUR 19945 EN.
Panagos, P., Liedekerke, M.V., Jones, A. and Montanarella, L. 2012 European Soil Data Centre: Response to European policy support and public data requirements. Land Use Policy, 29 (2), 329-338.