Options for the tool:

Lon:
Lat: Growing season
Model:SRESYear
Baseline A1B base
HadCM3 A2 2050
ECHAM5 B1 2080

Climate data and projections used

Two General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs and one baseline climate output at a resolution of 10 minutes (approx 20x20km) are offered, based on data from Worldclim (Hijmans et al 2005) and the CCAFS portal (CCAFS 2012). Three time periods are offered for climate matching: a baseline period 1971-2000, the projected 30-year climate period 2031-2060 (2050) and 2061-2090 (2080). Currently, only the IPCC SRES scenario(IPCC 2000) A1B can be selected. A1B is a medium high GHG emissions scenario representing rapid economic growth with balanced energy sources.

Using the tool

Climate matching
The growing season box, if checked provides a match for the months March to October, if unchecked then the match is for the whole year.
Tip - select the Year first, followed by the Model, and then the SRES.To run the climate matching tool click Calculate.
Moisture deficit
Results from a calculation are highlighted as 'climate matched' areas. The map can be further assessed using three climatic moisture deficit (MD) layers. The MD layers represent regional variation where the sensitivity of tree species to drought varies. Moisture deficit thresholds represent the regional extent of suitability for 'very sensitive tree species' (MD200), 'moderately tolerant tree species' (MD250), and 'tolerant tree species' (MD300). The zones have been calculated separately for baseline, 2050, and 2080 projections by accumulating the monthly excess of crop evaporation (using the Hargreaves method - ET0) over monthly precipitation (P). Moisture Deficit thresholds based on an average of the maximum MD value over each year of a 30-year climatic period are used to assess whether all, some, or none of the eight GCMs agree. The MD classes are: 'no-shading' - all models below the described MD threshold, 'light grey' - uncertainty among the eight models, 'dark grey' - all models over the described MD threshold.

Layers:

Awailable water content
Moisture deficit None
Base: MD200 MD250 MD300
2050: MD200 MD250 MD300
2080: MD200 MD250 MD300
nothing to download
Available water capacity
The available water capacity (AWC) layers (Panagos et al 2012) are based on rasters from the JRC European soil database (Liederkerke et al 2012). The AWV layer can be selected to assess potential water holding capacity of soils, and from which to improve an understanding of uncertainty, particularly in areas where there is some uncertainty in MD projections among GCMs. In such areas with higher AWC values the risk of losses in goods and services from tree species with a given MD sensitivity can be more carefully assessed.
Use benefits
These data help tree-breeders and foresters understand and manage better the uncertainty associated with making decisions under climate change. Moisture deficit thresholds give a clue to the likelihood of risk of a species into the future. The available water capacity gives a clue to mitigating soil moisture availability that may protect trees that are moderately tolerant of drought.

Climate tool - short description

The climate matching tool is still being developed and this first release uses a method modified from the approach published by Broadmeadow et al (2005). There is a requirement, for tools to identify regions, not just within Europe but globally, where forest reproductive material may be suitable for adapting forestry to reduce the impacts of climate change through actions of assisted migration. Such a method can provide information and aid societal understanding of changes in the suitability of tree species and provenance across Europe. This will help adaptation thinking to develop resilient forest ecosystems and a resilient forestry business sector. The climate matching tool uses the same three monthly variables described by Broadmeadow et al (2005): mean monthly temperature, total monthly precipitation and mean daily temperature range (DTR), calculated as the difference between mean monthly maximum and minimum temperature. The tool identifies locations around the world where the current climate is most similar to the future climate of a selected European site for a range of possible climates (from General Circulation Models) for different climate periods (for example 2030s, 2050s and 2080s) and different SRES scenarios. This version of the model covers only sites in Europe.


References:
Broadmeadow M, Ray D, Samuel C (2005) Climate change and the future for broadleaved tree species in Britain. Forestry 78 (2):145-167

Downscaled GCM Data Portal (2012) CCAFS Coordinating Unit - University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Science, Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, Rolighedsvej 21, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. http://www.ccafs-climate.org/. Accessed 16 Jul 2012

Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology 25:1965-1978

IPCC (2000) IPCC Special Report: Emission Scenarios: summary for policymakers WMO-UN Environment Programme, Nairobi

Liedekerke, M.V., Jones, A. and Panagos, P. 2006 ESDBv2 Raster Library - a set of rasters derived from the European Soil Database distribution v2.0 European Commission and the European Soil Bureau Network, CD-ROM, EUR 19945 EN.

Panagos, P., Liedekerke, M.V., Jones, A. and Montanarella, L. 2012 European Soil Data Centre: Response to European policy support and public data requirements. Land Use Policy, 29 (2), 329-338.